Decifirst turns complexity into clarity. Explore thousands of possible futures before you commit — and stay one move ahead of uncertainty.
✓ 3 free analyses · ✓ No credit card · ✓ Full report in under 5 minutes
The real cost of gut feeling
The world will not become more stable.
Build a structure that thrives on it.
Decifirst adapts to your industry
Building a resilient portfolio is not a matter of intuition. Decifirst stress-tests your allocations against thousands of market scenarios — crash, inflation, sector bubble.
Not too much, not too little. Decifirst simulates how your inventory evolves under demand swings, supplier delays or seasonal peaks.
Opening a foreign subsidiary is a leap into the unknown. Decifirst evaluates political, economic, logistical and competitive risks before market entry.
Due diligence, acquisition stress-testing and overconfidence bias detection before you sign. Decifirst runs thousands of Monte Carlo scenarios and challenges your decision with its own counter-arguments.
A bridge, a highway, a hospital: massive public investments. Decifirst projects their impact on traffic, employment and local finances.
Late payments, unexpected charges, tight month-ends. Decifirst simulates your cash flow over the next twelve months.
Decifirst computes failure probability based on age, usage and production conditions. You schedule maintenance at the right moment.
What Decifirst does.
What no one else does.
Analyses you can justify to your teams, your partners, or your regulators.
Decifirst doesn't just spot trends. It reveals the real causes shaping your outcomes — and what shifts when you change a single key lever.
Every analysis returns a set of contrasting scenarios — worst to best case — each with a stated probability and the assumption behind it.
Before handing you the report, our system confronts your decision with its strongest counter-arguments. You receive an honest report — not a confirmation.
Economic, political and health crises leave weak signals before they erupt. Decifirst detects them continuously.
Decifirst analyses your past decisions and identifies your repeating patterns. You receive a personalised alert before every critical decision.
From question to report.
In 5 minutes.
In natural language, in any language. No complex forms.
0 secOur engine analyses causes, simulates scenarios, evaluates risks — all in parallel.
~3 minYour report goes through our internal counter-analysis. Honest, robust result.
~1 minConfidence score, probability-weighted scenarios, risks, concrete recommendations. Exportable.
< 5 minTest it now. On your real decision.
Ask any decision question. Structured report in under 5 minutes.
Why trust us
Our algorithms rest on decades of decision science research. No marketing — solid foundations.
Every report ships with full source citations and a step-by-step audit trail — not a black box.
Based in Stockholm. GDPR compliant. Strictest European laws.
Every decision has a unique identifier. No black boxes.
This is what you receive. Nothing hidden.
An illustrative example of the output format, published in full: unique decision ID, weighted drivers, probability-weighted scenarios, the counter-argument run against it, and the audit trail. The figures are illustrative, not a client result.
3PL renewal absorbs volume growth without new capex.
Own-site payroll would exceed the 3PL premium by month 7.
Fixed subsidiary costs become the dominant downside.
Anchoring on the 2024 build-cost estimate. It predates a 19% rise in local construction costs; the estimate was re-based before scoring.
If the top two customers renew for 3 years, the subsidiary breaks even 5 months earlier. Confidence was adjusted -6 points for that dependency.
Illustrative example · 5 weighted drivers · 3 scenarios · 1 challenge pass · the format is designed so each figure can be tied back to its stated driver.
Collected. Weighted. Cross-checked. Challenged.
This is the conceptual framework that guides how a Decifirst report is built — the reasoning discipline we apply, not a certified technical description of the current implementation.
Official statistical, regulatory and multilateral sources are read with their publication date. Anything undated or unattributable is discarded before scoring.
Each driver receives an explicit weight based on how much it moves the outcome, not how often it appears in the text. Weights are printed in the report.
A claim used in the verdict must appear in at least two independent sources, or it is downgraded to an assumption and labelled as such.
Before delivery, the decision is attacked with its strongest counter-argument. The confidence score is adjusted up or down by that pass.
The report gets a unique decision ID so it can be quoted in a board pack, a credit file or an audit six months later.
The scientific foundations
No black box vocabulary. These are the named, published methods that inspire our approach — the reasoning frame behind the report, not a claim that each technique runs as a certified statistical pipeline today.
A confidence score is only useful if 70% means 70%. We reason about confidence in the spirit of the Brier score and deliberately keep reports out of the overconfident 90-100% band.
Every new dated source shifts a prior instead of replacing the analysis. That is why re-running a decision two weeks later moves the number rather than the story.
Instead of one forecast, a report sets out contrasting scenarios with explicit probabilities and an indicative interval — the Monte Carlo mindset of reasoning over a spread rather than a single point.
Hypotheses are tested by what disconfirms them, not by what supports them. This is the intelligence-community standard for structured analytic technique.
Anchoring, overconfidence, sunk cost, availability and confirmation are detected against a named taxonomy and reported as a specific alert, not a generic warning.
Your decision is compared against the outcome distribution of similar past decisions, which is the documented antidote to the planning fallacy.
These principles shape every report. What we commit to is the transparency itself: Decifirst publishes its format, its weights and its reasoning so any analyst can challenge them — the sample report above is an illustration of that format.
Where Decifirst is better — not just different
Honest positioning: the tools below are excellent at what they were built for. The comparison is about calibrated decision output for a specific question, in hours instead of quarters.
| Criteria | Decifirst | Palantir | Bloomberg / Refinitiv | Tableau / Power BI | ChatGPT / Claude Enterprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Built to answer | One decision, end to end | Enterprise data integration | Market data & terminal workflow | Dashboards on your own data | Free-form text generation |
| Time to a decision report | Under 5 minutes | Weeks to months of deployment | Analyst hours per question | Analyst hours per question | Seconds, no calibration |
| Entry price | €0 then €49/month | Six-figure contracts | ~€20-30k/seat/year | Licence + internal build cost | ~€25-30/seat/month |
| Source traceability | Dated source per driver | Yes, on ingested data | Excellent on market data | Only your own inputs | Often unverifiable |
| Counter-argument pass | Automatic before delivery | No | No | No | Only if you ask for it |
| Cognitive bias detection | Named taxonomy, per decision | No | No | No | Generic at best |
| Auditable decision ID | Yes, quotable 6 months later | Internal lineage | No | No | No |
| Setup required | None — a question | Integration programme | Terminal + training | Data model + BI team | None |
Sector suites such as SAP IBP or Kinaxis remain the reference for executing a supply plan. Decifirst does not replace them: it stress-tests the decision before you commit the plan.
Institutional intelligence.
Startup pricing.
- ✓3 free analyses
- ✓Full structured report
- ✓Calibrated confidence score
- ✓Auditable decision ID
- ✓30 analyses/month
- ✓Full report + detected biases
- ✓3 probability-weighted scenarios
- ✓PDF export
- ✓Email support
- ✓60 analyses/month
- ✓Full causal analysis ★
- ✓Cognitive bias detection
- ✓Internal challenged report ★
- ✓Deci Global 50 countries
- ✓Real-time alerts
- ✓JSON + PDF export
- ✓300 analyses/month
- ✓All features ★
- ✓Deci Global 195 countries
- ✓API + Webhooks
- ✓Enterprise SSO
- ✓Dedicated Stockholm CSM
✓ No commitment · ✓ Cancel anytime · ✓ Billed by YOUGO Sverige, publisher of Decifirst · Secure payment
Your real questions.
Our real answers.
Your next decision
deserves Decifirst.
3 free analyses. No credit card. Full report in under 5 minutes. Cancel anytime.
✓ Decifirst, published by YOUGO Sverige · Stockholm · ✓ GDPR compliant